2021 Rallys

[Earl Kitchener]

I think the event industry, if only privately, discounted next year months ago just down to practicalities. Although for obvious reasons I no longer write into the outdoor trade I did take a look in October and concluded that the feeling was since the government's approach to managing this virus, reaction to statistics and imposition of restrictions at short notice, had not changed in seven months you simply couldn't plan anything. That was before the Leader of the Conservative Party ditched his one pal and imposed month long restrictions. At that time Michael Eavis was talking about massive testing arrangements if Glastonbury takes place next year (one does wonder at even mentioning this idea) though they were aiming for a date in June while Boomtown were already selling tickets for August despite the fact that they still have roll-overs from 2020 un-refunded. At least the Jockey Club aren't yet selling tickets for the Cheltenham Festival meeting yet and given the jumpiness of Gloucestershire County Council that's sensible. Goodwood Motorsport are only promising alerts at this stage. The big issue for some is that they are still holding advance money which at some time they will have to refund.

I do occasionally wonder of the only large scale event that might take place here next year is a general election.

[ferguson_tom]

Its easy to assume locking down and cancelling all events will save lives but there is a huge events and entertainment industry which millions are reliant on for their livelihoods, the effect of unemployment on peoples mental and physical health is massive and will be felt for years for not just the people in the industry but their families too, especially their kids. I am not talking about the big bosses earning top money but the people who do the day to day work on average salaries.

The job the government has is balancing if the cure is worse than the disease for now and future years. I think once the elderly and vulnerable are protected by the vaccine then things will quite quickly be back to normal as for everyone outside these groups the hospital admissions and mortality rates are very low. Although big events take lots of planning come summer 2021 people will be longing to get out and go to events (especially younger people) so if there is money to be made things will start to happen and organizers will find a way to make it work as will the suppliers.

[Mr B]

Originally Posted by Earl Kitchener

The big issue for some is that they are still holding advance money which at some time they will have to refund.
.

I have a show that we were booked in with a stand and are still holding nearly £2k of my money. The show was scheduled for May and I paid in November 2019.

I've created a lot of fuss and the best they offered me was 50% back. They've threatened much higher pitch fees etc if I press further.

They are enforcing roll-over to 2021.

I am sure there are many of these events doing this (larger, more professional ones)

[Earl Kitchener]

Mrs K is the same. It's going to change many traders' willingness to book months in advance. Those that survive that is.

[8_10 Brass Cleaner]

Things will return to relative normality quicker than you think.

The statistics tell us a number of things. Ok, the figures never all match when you shop around to find them, but there are some clear patterns.

More than half the deaths are in those 80+

A further third are 60 to 79 of age.

Less than 1% are 20 - 39.

Less than 0.1% are 19 or younger.

The risk seems to jump a magnitude at 40 and again at 60.

Looking at the deaths yesterday. Say 600. And bearing in mind we for some irish reason class a COVID death as someone who has died within 28 days of contracting covid.

So At least 300 of them deaths are 80+

At least 200 more are 60 - 79.

You might say no more than around 50 are 40 - 60

You might say that no more than around 6 are younger 20 - 39.

When you drill down, you find that co-morbidities also has a huge contribution to make in all age groups. And the death of someone otherwise healthy is very rare indeed.

I initially believed that immunizing those in care homes was a waste, and that immunizing those of working age would be better, to get life back to normal quicker. Rather than those in the twilight of their lives.

However, the stats tell it differently, Get a large proportion of the 80+ groups immunized, and you save half the deaths.

Get the 60 - 79 age group done also, and you've got a minimum of 83% of the deaths reduced.

And that gives us about 16% of the population immune, but also not spreading it about.

Given that it is very likely that a larger proportion of the population has had Covid, than the media would have us believe, and therefore is either immune, or are protected by some sort of residual immunity (dont believe facebook, if you've had it, you will have some immunity, if not be totally immune for a significant period of time). And this proportion continues to grow. Some localized studies have shown a significant percentage of immunity in some hotspots.

If they can roll out the immunizations for the elderly, vulnerable etc etc. And by 2019 figures 2.24million 80+, 8.51 million 60 - 79, by early spring, with the warmer weather improving prognosis, more heard immunity etc etc. I think it is likely that public events will be possible in the later summer, though I expect that masks and various protection measures are going to be with us for some time.

[trfdevon]

I don't see much happening in the first half of 2021. Too much uncertainty for smaller shows to book facilities (tents / loos etc), however in the 2nd half, (and so long as C19 has been brought under control), then some bigger shows will go ahead, but at reduced numbers. So imagine GDSF etc but with fewer exhibits and restrictions on visitor numbers.

[ferguson_tom]

Originally Posted by 8_10 Brass Cleaner

However, the stats tell it differently, Get a large proportion of the 80+ groups immunized, and you save half the deaths..

I wouldnt be at all suprised if come March/April the government decide not to bother vaccinating people under 40-50 ish years old. For groups not in the old and vulnerable category the virus seems to be no worse then a bad dose of the flu or, in most cases, mild or asymptomatic.

What they have achieved in producing the vaccine so quickly is nothing short of incredible, however I think although everyone involved is confident in its safety going from a trial of thousands to a national program vaccinating millions is a different story and there will always be the "what if factor" with any new vaccine. For people that are not at real risk of the virus they may decided to remove that factor and not give it to them.

[Malc-Y]

Thanks Hedd, you've cheered me up no end,

Malc. (age 76)

[Earl Kitchener]

Originally Posted by trfdevon

I don't see much happening in the first half of 2021. Too much uncertainty for smaller shows to book facilities (tents / loos etc), however in the 2nd half, (and so long as C19 has been brought under control), then some bigger shows will go ahead, but at reduced numbers. So imagine GDSF etc but with fewer exhibits and restrictions on visitor numbers.

I wouldn't put money on anything much taking place at all though I hope I'm wrong. I actually think it's the smaller shows which will find it easiest to make use of emerging opportunities and I hope they do. At seems to me that at best it will be February before we get a sense of how things will be panning out by which time the bigger shows would have been pulled anyway.

[8_10 Brass Cleaner]

Originally Posted by Malc-Y

Thanks Hedd, you've cheered me up no end,

Malc. (age 76)

Frankly Malc, the elephant in the room is that a good many of those who have sadly died in those older age groups would have died in the next 12 months anyway. From other age related factors.

The damage to the economy has been catastrophic in many sectors.

Other countries, dare I say autocratic regimes, China, Russia etc, even to an extent Trumps America have made the decision that the economic damage Isn't worth it. I'm not saying their model is correct, but I'm not so sure our UK model is the best thought out either. And before anyone blames the Tories, Ive seen what Jimmie Crankie is doing in scotland and that idiot in Wales are doing (because I have to plan construction works throughout the UK), and trust me they are not.

But frankly life needs to move on, there is a good proportion of the population that statistically are very unlikely indeed to get ill enough to need any intervention. This is well known, and has been since the summer.

The under 30's, (perhaps the under 40's) need to be allowed to get on with their lives safe in the knowledge that even if they all caught it that they are not going to overwhelm the hospitals. and hardly any of them are going to die. But they also need to be armed with the knowledge that they need to keep away from the elderly. The young lads need to keep away from all the cougars etc. etc. This alone will revitalize the hospitality sector.

Similarly those who have received a positive test, and can be proven that they have at some point in the last 12 months also need to be allowed to get on with life. If they are not totally immune, then they are very well protected. And on the basis they cant catch it again, they cant catch it and carry it and transmit it to the old folks. They should have a free pass, they are safe themselves, and present a statistically insignificant transmission risk.

Testing for antibodies needs to kick in, I've friends in the NHS where this has been widespread for months. Get the general population tested FFS please Boris. Got antibodys?. Your good to go as above.

If your 60+ you need to be careful. Keep away from the young lads you Cougars. Those of you who prop the bar up, keep away from the nightclubs where the under 30's are. No Ibiza and Magaluf please. Get the jab and all is good.

If your 75+ keep away from everybody until youve had your jab. If you dont want your jab, good luck to you.

Theres a big group not covered 30 - 60, well. my view is you pays your money and takes the chance. Keep yourself to yourself until you get the jab, or throw the dice. The statistics are what they are. The odds are still good.

If you live in a multi generational house, sorry, you either evict granny or tell your 20something son its time to sling his hook, or find himself a bird to shack up with.

All the above are generalisms, statistically there will be always be exceptions. But the exceptions are not going to overwhelm the NHS.