2021 Rallys
 

I see that Kelsall and 1000 Engine both cancelled already, both in June I believe.

I don't see how any society can plan there event and lay out money in advance with the currant government in charge. There is no continuity, what was good on Tuesday is bad on Wednesday. More U turns than you can poke a stick at. How can you plan with such a poor record of consistency.

Shame they have cancelled so early especially with light (supposedly) at the end of the tunnel.

I would think a negotiation with most suppliers if not all could be based on the proviso they get paid if the event goes ahead due to government restrictions, or have a cut off date closer to the event to cancel and not get hit with any cancellation penalties etc. This would dramatically reduce the potetial losses to organizers and hopefully give them the confidence to at least give it a go.

I think that all we can count on is continued chaos .
Rant drowned at birth !

I guess it's going to be small events and road runs. Bressingham Steam in Miniature worked well in August.

Bressingham has the benefit of infrastructure and owning its site.

I doubt any big events will get going till the tail end, some of the larger rallies may sneak in but it'll be difficult.

Remember - they are only talking about having the most vulnerable vaccinated for Easter time. There are still a lot of people to go after that.

The North Rode event in June is also cancelled, they are hoping to run the September event though.

Pete.

We have roads, vehicles and picnics. Thats my year sorted!!

You also gota remember cancellation insurance i bet you wont get cover next year if this comes back

The organisers of the Isle of Man TT have also recentley cancelled next year which brings in millions for the islands economy. I know it's not steam (but there is steam on the Island). IMO even if a vaccine is rolled out in the next few months, or the virus dies out naturally. I wouldn't bet on any steam rallys going on in the UK during 2021. And IMO it's the best thing. We all need to be safe and not contract the virus, nor spread it on. Leave the rallys out until corona has gone, dusted and we are safe. Any organiser of any gathering of any sort of event, who is organising for 2021, needs to think and not be stupid. Lives are worth a lot more than money in my opinion. Hopefully we will all still be here in 2022

I think the event industry, if only privately, discounted next year months ago just down to practicalities. Although for obvious reasons I no longer write into the outdoor trade I did take a look in October and concluded that the feeling was since the government's approach to managing this virus, reaction to statistics and imposition of restrictions at short notice, had not changed in seven months you simply couldn't plan anything. That was before the Leader of the Conservative Party ditched his one pal and imposed month long restrictions. At that time Michael Eavis was talking about massive testing arrangements if Glastonbury takes place next year (one does wonder at even mentioning this idea) though they were aiming for a date in June while Boomtown were already selling tickets for August despite the fact that they still have roll-overs from 2020 un-refunded. At least the Jockey Club aren't yet selling tickets for the Cheltenham Festival meeting yet and given the jumpiness of Gloucestershire County Council that's sensible. Goodwood Motorsport are only promising alerts at this stage. The big issue for some is that they are still holding advance money which at some time they will have to refund.

I do occasionally wonder of the only large scale event that might take place here next year is a general election.

Its easy to assume locking down and cancelling all events will save lives but there is a huge events and entertainment industry which millions are reliant on for their livelihoods, the effect of unemployment on peoples mental and physical health is massive and will be felt for years for not just the people in the industry but their families too, especially their kids. I am not talking about the big bosses earning top money but the people who do the day to day work on average salaries.

The job the government has is balancing if the cure is worse than the disease for now and future years. I think once the elderly and vulnerable are protected by the vaccine then things will quite quickly be back to normal as for everyone outside these groups the hospital admissions and mortality rates are very low. Although big events take lots of planning come summer 2021 people will be longing to get out and go to events (especially younger people) so if there is money to be made things will start to happen and organizers will find a way to make it work as will the suppliers.

I have a show that we were booked in with a stand and are still holding nearly £2k of my money. The show was scheduled for May and I paid in November 2019.

I've created a lot of fuss and the best they offered me was 50% back. They've threatened much higher pitch fees etc if I press further.

They are enforcing roll-over to 2021.

I am sure there are many of these events doing this (larger, more professional ones)

Mrs K is the same. It's going to change many traders' willingness to book months in advance. Those that survive that is.

Things will return to relative normality quicker than you think.

The statistics tell us a number of things. Ok, the figures never all match when you shop around to find them, but there are some clear patterns.

More than half the deaths are in those 80+

A further third are 60 to 79 of age.

Less than 1% are 20 - 39.

Less than 0.1% are 19 or younger.

The risk seems to jump a magnitude at 40 and again at 60.

Looking at the deaths yesterday. Say 600. And bearing in mind we for some irish reason class a COVID death as someone who has died within 28 days of contracting covid.

So At least 300 of them deaths are 80+

At least 200 more are 60 - 79.

You might say no more than around 50 are 40 - 60

You might say that no more than around 6 are younger 20 - 39.

When you drill down, you find that co-morbidities also has a huge contribution to make in all age groups. And the death of someone otherwise healthy is very rare indeed.

I initially believed that immunizing those in care homes was a waste, and that immunizing those of working age would be better, to get life back to normal quicker. Rather than those in the twilight of their lives.

However, the stats tell it differently, Get a large proportion of the 80+ groups immunized, and you save half the deaths.

Get the 60 - 79 age group done also, and you've got a minimum of 83% of the deaths reduced.

And that gives us about 16% of the population immune, but also not spreading it about.

Given that it is very likely that a larger proportion of the population has had Covid, than the media would have us believe, and therefore is either immune, or are protected by some sort of residual immunity (dont believe facebook, if you've had it, you will have some immunity, if not be totally immune for a significant period of time). And this proportion continues to grow. Some localized studies have shown a significant percentage of immunity in some hotspots.

If they can roll out the immunizations for the elderly, vulnerable etc etc. And by 2019 figures 2.24million 80+, 8.51 million 60 - 79, by early spring, with the warmer weather improving prognosis, more heard immunity etc etc. I think it is likely that public events will be possible in the later summer, though I expect that masks and various protection measures are going to be with us for some time.

I don't see much happening in the first half of 2021. Too much uncertainty for smaller shows to book facilities (tents / loos etc), however in the 2nd half, (and so long as C19 has been brought under control), then some bigger shows will go ahead, but at reduced numbers. So imagine GDSF etc but with fewer exhibits and restrictions on visitor numbers.

I wouldnt be at all suprised if come March/April the government decide not to bother vaccinating people under 40-50 ish years old. For groups not in the old and vulnerable category the virus seems to be no worse then a bad dose of the flu or, in most cases, mild or asymptomatic.

What they have achieved in producing the vaccine so quickly is nothing short of incredible, however I think although everyone involved is confident in its safety going from a trial of thousands to a national program vaccinating millions is a different story and there will always be the "what if factor" with any new vaccine. For people that are not at real risk of the virus they may decided to remove that factor and not give it to them.

I wouldn't put money on anything much taking place at all though I hope I'm wrong. I actually think it's the smaller shows which will find it easiest to make use of emerging opportunities and I hope they do. At seems to me that at best it will be February before we get a sense of how things will be panning out by which time the bigger shows would have been pulled anyway.

Frankly Malc, the elephant in the room is that a good many of those who have sadly died in those older age groups would have died in the next 12 months anyway. From other age related factors.

The damage to the economy has been catastrophic in many sectors.

Other countries, dare I say autocratic regimes, China, Russia etc, even to an extent Trumps America have made the decision that the economic damage Isn't worth it. I'm not saying their model is correct, but I'm not so sure our UK model is the best thought out either. And before anyone blames the Tories, Ive seen what Jimmie Crankie is doing in scotland and that idiot in Wales are doing (because I have to plan construction works throughout the UK), and trust me they are not.

But frankly life needs to move on, there is a good proportion of the population that statistically are very unlikely indeed to get ill enough to need any intervention. This is well known, and has been since the summer.

The under 30's, (perhaps the under 40's) need to be allowed to get on with their lives safe in the knowledge that even if they all caught it that they are not going to overwhelm the hospitals. and hardly any of them are going to die. But they also need to be armed with the knowledge that they need to keep away from the elderly. The young lads need to keep away from all the cougars etc. etc. This alone will revitalize the hospitality sector.

Similarly those who have received a positive test, and can be proven that they have at some point in the last 12 months also need to be allowed to get on with life. If they are not totally immune, then they are very well protected. And on the basis they cant catch it again, they cant catch it and carry it and transmit it to the old folks. They should have a free pass, they are safe themselves, and present a statistically insignificant transmission risk.

Testing for antibodies needs to kick in, I've friends in the NHS where this has been widespread for months. Get the general population tested FFS please Boris. Got antibodys?. Your good to go as above.

If your 60+ you need to be careful. Keep away from the young lads you Cougars. Those of you who prop the bar up, keep away from the nightclubs where the under 30's are. No Ibiza and Magaluf please. Get the jab and all is good.

If your 75+ keep away from everybody until youve had your jab. If you dont want your jab, good luck to you.

Theres a big group not covered 30 - 60, well. my view is you pays your money and takes the chance. Keep yourself to yourself until you get the jab, or throw the dice. The statistics are what they are. The odds are still good.

If you live in a multi generational house, sorry, you either evict granny or tell your 20something son its time to sling his hook, or find himself a bird to shack up with.

All the above are generalisms, statistically there will be always be exceptions. But the exceptions are not going to overwhelm the NHS.

“If your 60+ you need to be careful. Keep away from the young lads you Cougars.”

Hedd, how many Cougars do you think read this stuff?

Well, the wife does

There is another huge ‘elephant in the room’ Hedd.....something we cannot mention these days sadly but the real ‘hot spots’ tell you all you need to know

I know a number of smaller rallys hoping and planning to go ahead in June and onwards and I say good luck to them.

The lockdown and tiers are ridiculous - the hospitals knew how to treat covid in May, they would have been better off to spend the money protecting elderly venerable and let everyone else enjoy their lives and get the virus over the summer when it would spread slower - anyone under 50 will get it sooner or later anyhow. You don't get a free flu-jab what makes anyone think they'll ever get a free covid-jab unless they're high risk?

Over 20k employees of Debenhams and Arcardia alone, plus pubs and restaurants not reopening, gyms closed for good and so on - the multiplier effects of this will be a monumental recession lasting for years. No matter how much they balls up brexit, it'll be nothing compared to the covid cockup.

Add on all the furlough and business rate relief payments and my children will be paying for all this spending their entire lives.

Is it right to burden the younger healthier masses (both financially and that we won't get an extra year of life to make up for missing 2020 rally season) just so a few elderly with underlying health conditions might get a few more months? And I say few as put it in perspective, even the daft died at somepoint within 28days of covid test figures are nothing compared to 450 deaths each and every day from cancer - meanwhile cancer and other treatments are being reduced to fight covid.

I understand your sentiment but I can't think of a price I wouldn't pay for just a single day in my late grandfathers company. We've all lost people, we can't bring anyone back - but we can try and hold on to those we have left.

Bloxham (Banbury) Rally now cancelled.

Could we stop the litany of 'and now xxx is cancelled, it's my favourite show and I'm heartbroken...'

It's not adding anything positive to the forum and for those of us who either have serious health conditions or are looking after those who do it is merely pouring salt on the wounds.

As has been said several times, presume THEY ARE ALL CANCELLED. Have a quiet winge to your self. Then get on with life and let us know what you have been up to, what you can do and what positives you hope the future holds.

It is a shame that Boris has not the guts to cancel Christmas , that'll kill a more than a few Grandads , but he daren't be the bad fairy and lose even more votes .

BAH , HUMBUG !

It’s astonishing that the Communist Party of China has done more damage to the British way of life in a manner that Al Qaeda could ever have dreamed of. Which is a bit odd given what they’re doing to their own citizens close to the Kazakh/ Mongolian border.

Why is everyone so pre-occupied with the future. Enjoy the here and now - as best you can!

Because the future contains working engines, workshops I’m allowed to go to and considerably less stress. It’s easy to be content if you’ve already done everything you want to. I haven’t, and I want to get going again.

I think that Simplex' meaning was that we should learn to be happy in the present .

What will be, will be. Stop making negative assumptions without legit evidence to back it up. There are people out there (including myself) who are dying to have their 'Rally fix' next year - even if only a small number of rallies go ahead

Totally agree Mike
Don’t know if anyone ever reads my sign off signature at bottom of each post
“ Today is the tomorrow you worried about yesterday “
It was some advice given to me at a time in my life when I was facing a very uncertain future with my health ,indeed no one was sure if I would pull through ,but I did and I’m still here
Don’t worry about tomorrow because it’s yet to come and yesterday has gone ,just get on with living the day you have been given
Yes I am missing my rallies and good times with the steam fraternity ,however I’m fit healthy and tinkering with stuff in the workshop ,if it takes a couple of years to get back to “ normal” so be it our engines have been about a long time ,over 100 years in many cases and will still be there when all this is over .
Take care and stay well
Cheers Martin

Yesterday's history, tomorrow's a mystery, today is a gift, that's why it's called the present. Enjoy your presents while you can.

Most of the rallies down here in sunny Devon and Cornwall normally take place by the end of August and I do not think that mass vaccinations will be completed before then knowing how ineffective our government is.

I begin to wonder if perhaps we should consider abandoning the rally season for 2021 and start the one in 2022 in earnest. If I was still a rally organiser I would personally find it soul destroying to be part way through organising a rally and then having to cancel it due to unforseen circumstances.

Just posting useful information, not trying to induce anyone to commit suicide.

Seeing the comment from 'Simplex' made me think back to the 'good old days' when I was part of the Tuesday Night gang at Knowl Hill (Berks) and we would be in the shed discussing the merits of one make of engine against another. John Keeley would come in the shed and bark in that delightful gruff way of his, "you're all taking sh** ...... all engines are bloomin' luvly".

Similarly, when it was chucking it down with rain and properly miserable and we were all moaning our heads off about the weather, John would sharply tell us it was a lovely day and inform us, "any day you are still here is a lovely day".

John Keeley ..... we miss him so much !

To be honest thats just another waste of time money and effort, as if any of the other parties will be any better.

As the old saying goes “You can please some of the people all of the time, you can please all of the people some of the time, but you can’t please all of the people all of the time”